Good Morning [%first_name |Dear Reader%],

Before we get into today’s analysis, we’re thrilled to share a quick announcement.

For our Christmas Day broadcast, we’re closing out the year with a special episode—including an Ask Me Anything (AMA) with PGK and Rohin.

We’ve put together a Typeform to collect your questions, reflections, and predictions about Two by Two—and the hosts will react to your best entries on the show.

Your voice will shape this episode, so we’d love for you to take part!

👉 Please share your responses before Tuesday, 16 December. The more you tell us, the better (and funnier) the episode will be. You can access the Typeform here.

Let’s make this final show a launchpad for a more interactive, dynamic Two by Two community as we step into 2026!

Now, onto today’s discussion.

Look at the 2X2. Blinkit is sitting up there with sunglasses and popcorn, meanwhile down below, Instamart and Zepto are throwing punches at each other—both running on about $1 billion each, fighting for #2.

That’s pretty much the entire quick commerce story right now. And this week, the leader decided to stir the pot.

Albinder Dhindsa, CEO of Blinkit, told Bloomberg that India’s quick commerce bubble “may be close to bursting”. He said it could take weeks, maybe months, but it will burst. Then, in the same breath, he added that they’re not worried as they’re far ahead of everyone else.

Meanwhile, Swiggy, which went public just over a year ago, announced it needs another Rs 10,000 crore. And Zepto? Zepto dropped all fees overnight, forcing everyone else to scramble and match.

This week on Two by Two, Rohin and Praveen brought in Ashwin Mehta, head of research at Ambit Capital, and Anand Kalyanaraman, finance editor at The Ken, to decode what’s actually happening.

Because if you look past the headlines, the math tells a very different story than the hype.

Ambit Capital’s analysis paints a sobering picture of the market’s true ceiling. Their modelling suggests that India can, at best, support around 12,000 dark stores—and this calculation already relies on fairly optimistic assumptions.

Source: Ambit Capital Research, November 2025

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Swiggy’s situation appears more precarious than the headlines suggest.

PGK listed these assumptions: 25 minutes is fine (wrong), grocery-first approach (wrong), single super app advantage (wrong), spinning out sub-brands (wrong).

But the real trouble is in the unit economics. To put the Ambit report simply: Blinkit has nearly 700 more stores than Instamart and processes roughly 30% more orders every single day. Thus for every order delivered, Blinkit loses just ~1% of the value. Instamart loses ~12%.

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The conversation also highlighted some emerging warning signs: Amazon and Flipkart are just getting started.

But here’s what stuck with me: this isn’t about land grab anymore. We’re at 70% capacity. This is about survival. And right now, only one player is sitting comfortably with popcorn while the others fight it out below.

We go deeper in our latest episode. Listen to it here.

Last week’s episode about “The bro-ification of business and tech podcasts” stirred up a lot of conversation and comments from so many of you—and we love to see it!

Rohin and Praveen were joined by Kosturi Ghosh and Swapnika Nag and dove deep into the male dominance in the Indian business and tech podcasting space, where the hosts openly acknowledged their own podcast’s poor gender ratio.

Here are a few of the most insightful perspectives we received, each offering a distinct take on the underlying problem:

1. Hamsini Shivakumar argued that the issue is fundamentally systemic, not a matter of individual competence or solely a personal choice. She points to three major structural barriers: 1) women face heavier trolling and scrutiny for voicing strong opinions, leading to a poor risk-return ratio for public participation; 2) cultural conditioning encourages men to debate ‘how to change the world’, while women often prioritise ‘how to contribute more’; and 3) the male-dominated network effect requires a conscious, planned effort to counter.

2. Peeho Sinha believes the core challenges are rooted in the limited availability of women leaders in the existing networks, which reduces their mindshare when hosts are selecting guests. She also focuses on the “harsher scrutiny” women leaders face over their answers compared to their male counterparts, making public exchanges a greater professional risk.

3. Peddi Abhishek appreciated the hosts’ honesty but offered a strong critique: he warns against “apologising without fully owning” the structural problem. He argued that suggesting women need to “come out of their shell” risks shifting the responsibility back onto women, ignoring the privilege many men have to show up unprepared and still be welcomed. He insists the solution requires allocating more resources towards fixing the guest sourcing systems.

Thank you all for sharing your perspectives. It’s clear this conversation is far from over, and we look forward to reading and discussing your views as we continue to evolve our platform. Let’s keep this going!

If you liked the episode or have thoughts or arguments to share, please email us at [email protected]. We look forward to hearing from you.

Until next week,
Uddantika

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