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The Collection Wed, 15 Oct 25 |
Multiple stories, multiple perspectives, one theme worth your time—every week. |
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Shifting from internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to an electric or hybrid vehicle is the fourth-most climate-friendly choice an individual can make, as per a recent World Resources Institute paper. Despite sustainability and the “go green” project appearing less shiny than they did a few years ago, more Indians are on this track than ever before.
EV registrations in India crossed over a million units in H1FY26, seeing a 2% uptick from the six months prior to that, according to data from the government’s Vahan portal. And penetration is slowly but steadily picking up, even though the government’s aim to make 30% of all vehicles EVs by 2030 still seems a bit hard to achieve.
| Source: Niti Aayog |
Over the last decade, the Indian government has run various subsidy schemes to encourage EV adoption and manufacturing. It started with FAME in 2015, continued with FAME-II between 2019 and 2024, and now we have the PM-EDrive scheme (which subsumed a transitional scheme rolled out after the phasing out of FAME-II).
But that’s just the Union government. India’s states have all introduced EV promotion schemes too. And none of them are exactly the same as the other, or produced the same results. Even the Union government’s schemes have had varying outcomes:
India’s electric two-wheeler (E2W) market witnessed a significant boost in sales between 2019 and 2023, coinciding with the FAME-II period. However, the adoption rate—the percentage of E2W sales compared to total two-wheeler sales—did not increase noticeably.
[…]
The electric three-wheeler passenger (E3WP) segment experienced significant growth during FAME-I, establishing a foundation for sustained market development. This segment demonstrated unique responsiveness to early policy intervention compared to other EV categories.
[…]
In the electric four-wheeler commercial (E4WC) segment, FAME-I had a limited impact with sales remaining low while the increase in subsidy under FAME-II helped drive growth.
India’s EV evolution: The impact of government subsidies over 10 years, IEEFA
Focus areas have steadily shifted over the years.
For example, the introduction of PM-EDrive marked the end of subsidy support for four-wheelers. Currently, there’s a separate central-level scheme for four-wheeler manufacturing to encourage foreign EV makers to set up base in India, but that has reportedly received little interest and the government is now mulling extending the deadline, according to Mint.
In August, PM-EDrive was extended from March 2026 to March 2028, but only for categories such as buses, trucks, and ambulances. So, as of today, subsidies on two-wheelers, three-wheelers, and rickshaws are all set to end by March next year.
States, for their part, are choosing different paths to achieve the same goal.
Take Uttar Pradesh, whose subsidy scheme from this week will only support EVs manufactured within the state. Or Rajasthan, which earlier this month removed tax exemptions for strong hybrid vehicles, effectively increasing their price and indicating a push towards pure electric vehicles. Or Kerala, which did the opposite by scrapping road-tax concessions for full EVs—indirectly pushing customers towards strong hybrids, which come cheaper.
Of course, with so many different state-level strategies at play, some states, according to Niti Aayog, are doing better than others.
| IEMI stands for India Electric Mobility Index, a Niti Aayog initiative to track electrification efforts at the state level |
Given the recent activity in the sector, and all the twists and turns in policy, this week’s edition of The Collection looks at the foundational support provided to EVs in India so far, the different approaches manufacturers are using, and what it means for you and your budget as a prospective buyer.
Subsidy schemes can be beneficial not just during the years they’re active, but even beyond that.
Subsidies not only boost immediate sales but also contribute to future adoption due to learning spillovers, potentially leading to economies of scale and peer effects. This suggests that the long-term benefits of subsidies might outweigh the initial costs, argued the authors.
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Within most countries, the authors find, the average incentives are decreasing yet the cost per additional EV has been flat or decreasing. “We offer one of the first analyses of medium-run subsidy effects, finding that accounting for spillover effects improves additionality and cost-effectiveness of subsidies by nearly 50%,” they write.
With six months remaining until the end of EV subsidy support for major categories like two-wheelers and three-wheelers, this 2024 story from Seema Singh, The Ken’s editor, is a must-read to understand the medium-term benefits of such policies.
Dear EV subsidy planners, the data has a few questions
After a year of flip-flops and sales spikes-dips, it’s clear that passenger cars and jeeps will continue to pollute the most, and subsidies have ‘medium-term’ benefits, not just short-term sales gains
Clearly, the latest focus area for governments, as seen with the PM-EDrive scheme, is public transport. Specifically, buses.
E-buses, however, have been operating mostly through public-private partnerships, unlike ICE buses where the majority are privately owned. This is what the e-bus system looks like in practice:
Instead of selling the buses and forgetting about them, busmakers will now have to maintain the fleet for the government. In return, the government or the state transport undertaking (STU) will pay the operator or OEM on a per-kilometre basis. This “pay-per-use” model slashes an operator’s cost of a 12-metre e-bus from Rs 97 per kilometre to Rs 43, explained Vasudha Madhavan of Ostara Advisors, an investment-banking firm focussed on electric mobility and sustainability.
[…]
“STUs defaulting on their payments is the entire e-bus industry’s pain point,” said the same senior executive of a private e-bus operating firm.
And that is just one of the roadblocks that India’s e-buses face.
Indian taxpayers cut the largest cheque for e-bus makers. Private operators ditch the ride
As the government gets its bus electrification dreams in gear, e-bus makers like EKA Mobility win big with public-private partnerships—but the public and private operators feel left out
Meanwhile, companies like Vinfast, which just entered the Indian market, are choosing contrarian approaches to selling EVs in a market that is already crowded with options. Like going beyond tier-1 cities, selling in workshops—“rather than asking the showroom to open service centres, they are asking the service centre to start selling”—and not shying away from charging a premium.
Why Vinfast wants to sell EVs out of workshops in tier-2 India
Vietnam’s largest automaker has picked India as its second chance. By targeting smaller cities, flipping the sales model, and building its own charging grid
Then, there’s Tesla, which is hedging its bets in a very nascent luxury EV market.
Tesla is almost in India, but who cares for its cars?
India doesn’t have what it takes to build a Tesla car. Tesla may not have what Indians want, either
In some ways, EVs are today where mobile phones were in the early 2000s. If so, can companies like JSW MG do what Reliance did?
The new, bold plan to get India to buy electric cars
Maybe the path to shift adoption to EVs lies through subscriptions
Of course, it isn’t just pure-play EVs that automakers are betting on. The Toyota-Maruti partnership has been benefitting from its strong presence in hybrids for a while.
The Maruti-Toyota marriage of convenience is winning against EVs
That's despite the government subsidies and price cuts that electric vehicles enjoy in the country
But choosing hybrids over EVs has its own consequences, as we wrote in this piece from last year.
Hybrids over EVs—are we putting our wallets before our lungs?
Whichever way you dice it, hybrids are ascendant. What does that mean for the air in our cities?
What about you? Have you already bought an EV, or are you planning to buy one? How do the price tags look to you sans the subsidies? Let me know by writing to [email protected].
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