Pankaj Vidyarthi, an IT professional, is counting down to his wedding day. Like most Indian grooms, his biggest worry isn’t the venue or the guest list. It’s the gold. He needs Rs 10–15 lakh worth of jewellery for his bride. Bad timing. Gold has climbed to an all-time high of Rs 1.37 lakh per 10 grams as of 15 December. With the rupee depreciating to its lowest value, things have only become more difficult for Vidyarthi. 

There’s more. His younger brother studies at an Ivy League university and has asked for an extra Rs 5 lakh this coming year. 

The reason is simple and brutal: the rupee. It has depreciated over 7% in a year, from Rs 85 in January to roughly Rs 91 this week. In five years, it’s fallen nearly 19%. 

“If I am buying jewellery worth Rs 15 lakh, it’s almost Rs 1 lakh costlier simply due to rupee depreciation,” says Vidyarthi.  

For the past year, the rupee has been Asia’s worst-performing currency. In recent months, it’s performed even worse than the Pakistani rupee.

View in Browser

Three economists associated with various banks, whom we spoke to, believe the rupee could cross 95 next year, driven mainly by India’s import-heavy economy and fading foreign investor confidence amid Trump-era uncertainties.

India’s current account deficit fell to 0.6% of GDP in FY25 due to strong services exports. Foreign investment inflows weakened, the rupee came under pressure, and foreign exchange reserves remained comfortable despite fluctuations.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s familiar stance—that it’s not a weak rupee but a strong dollar—is now wearing thin. 

Source: IMF

View in Browser

Most of us choose the “blue pill”. We shrug, talk about exports doing better and IT companies earning in dollars, and move on. But take the red pill, and the impact shows up everywhere.

India imports most of its gold. In November 2025, gold imports fell by 60% despite a $42 reduction in base prices, largely due to international price increases, and the Indian government’s consistent effort to reduce the current account deficit. 

Vegetable oil—of which India is the world’s largest importer—saw imports fall by over 28% last month. The primary reason was reduced imports of refined, bleached, and deodorised (RBD) palmolein, a key processed palm oil derivative. Rupee depreciation is also said to have contributed to the decline.